Again, putting on my well-worn hat as an *amateur psephologist - i.e. one who is involved (in a scholarly fashion, naturally enough) in the **'sociological and statistical study of election results and trends' - let me give a logical follow-up to yesterdays' blogpost: that is, to my own assessment/ 'prognostications' vis-a-vis yesterday's results: i.e. that newly-energized (political) bases/ constituencies were likely to lead to sizeable victories - in traditional strongholds - for both sides (of America's essential two-party political divide).
The Democrats in Colorado "winning a clean sweep...outperforming their wildest imaginings", according to regular RNZ National Washington correspondent Simon Marks specifically fulfilled one small part of my predictions, as did the absolute trouncing (in the House of Representatives only, mind you!) that Trump (and his agenda) effectively received in returning-to-the-fold ***Pennsylvania, and especially Virginia. Even, surprisingly enough, Trumpian West Virginia was far from a cinch in the Republicans' fold. Although neighbouring Ohio seemed to buck that trend, reaffirming its longtime status as the bastion of traditional Americanism.
So why did things transpire quite like they did yesterday - bearing in mind the lines of waiting voters were so long 'out West' that vote counting was extended in various places (well past the usual, NZ time, voting 'cutoff')? Just a couple words/reasons/explanations, folks...
Trump...Trump...Trump - and threatened healthcare 'entitlements' (for the Democrat upsurge).
The Kavanaugh Effect...plus south-of-the-border illegal immigration (for the Republicans).
Essentially the U S Senate went the one way (in a strongly pro-Republican direction - in the circumstances), whereas the House of Representatives set strongly in the ******'opposite' direction.
And why should that be? I really need not spell it out, it should be glaringly obvious as to anyone who ain't been living in ye proverbial cave over recent days and weeks and months; i.e. the Senate alone considers/authorizes/ultimately approves Supreme Court judicial nominations...and so, let's just say, the idea of 'guilty till proven innocent' simply (and perfectly understandably) doesn't - and of course shouldn't - go down well with anyone brought up upon the fundamental, time-honoured tenet of being innocent till proven guilty...and hence the reaction that ultimately set in bigtime for those who - naturally - felt that this fundamental principle of Western law (based upon the British common law from the time of the Magna Carta on) was not being adhered to - indeed, was essentially being jettisoned in no uncertain terms - in the well-canvassed Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.
And, on the other hand, people tend to like their new, Obama-era healthcare 'entitlements'. And, yes, there's that 'little matter' of the current occupant of the Oval Office...as if you hadn't heard...
*I did after all attain a minor in Political Studies/Science (in 2005), after returning as a mature student following a sixteen-year hiatus from varsity study; although my English major, I would argue, was as much if not even more political in its ideologically-constrained and saturated content. And having carefully followed American politics since my middle childhood (while Nixon, Watergate and Kissinger were household names), and eventually standing myself as an independent in 2008, I do reckon I've some basis of credibility for that about which I speak (and so readily pontificate!)
**Chambers Concise Dictionary (Cambridge, 1988).
***Obviously President Trump's belated and unfortunate visit (to provide solace et al after the recent Jewish synagogue massacre) almost immediately pre-election hardly helped matters one whit!
****Those four essential reasons (bar Trump and *****'the Kavanaugh Effect') could've been easily gleaned from follow-up polling data breakdowns (as so superbly displayed in the live ABC TV coverage), shown here (in NZ) upon Freeview's 'channel 13' (channel 10 at our place).
*****More on this to come (in a brief follow-up blogpost, itself majorly related to one I've been posting upon my other blogsite over recent days)...
******If one accepts the 'common wisdom' that the American Republican Party and their Democratic party counterparts are really all that ideologically opposed...in a real sense.
No comments:
Post a Comment